Author Topic: Act III  (Read 2875 times)

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Offline paralambano

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Re: Act III
« Reply #100 on: December 07, 2018, 05:35:51 pm »
Kerry -  ^

Look for an arrest of a Canadian or American in China possibly as a result. In July of 2014, Canada arrested a Chinese guy for hacking into data of US defense contractors. The man had permanent residency here but was a Chinese national. He spent almost 4 years in a US jail after being extradited to the US and pleading guilty. A couple of Christian aid workers from Canada were arrested in China about a month after the Canadians arrested the Chinese business man. The charges were for spying and stealing military secrets.

Extradition could take months or years.


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Offline Kerry

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Re: Act III
« Reply #101 on: December 07, 2018, 09:45:52 pm »
Kerry -  ^

Look for an arrest of a Canadian or American in China possibly as a result. In July of 2014, Canada arrested a Chinese guy for hacking into data of US defense contractors. The man had permanent residency here but was a Chinese national. He spent almost 4 years in a US jail after being extradited to the US and pleading guilty. A couple of Christian aid workers from Canada were arrested in China about a month after the Canadians arrested the Chinese business man. The charges were for spying and stealing military secrets.

Extradition could take months or years. 

para  .  .  .  .
You are probably right, Para, and I wouldn't expect them to arrest a businessman, not if they still want Americans to invest there.   

Offline Kerry

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Re: Act III
« Reply #102 on: December 14, 2018, 09:12:09 am »
Kerry -  ^

Look for an arrest of a Canadian or American in China possibly as a result. In July of 2014, Canada arrested a Chinese guy for hacking into data of US defense contractors. The man had permanent residency here but was a Chinese national. He spent almost 4 years in a US jail after being extradited to the US and pleading guilty. A couple of Christian aid workers from Canada were arrested in China about a month after the Canadians arrested the Chinese business man. The charges were for spying and stealing military secrets.

Extradition could take months or years.


para  .  .  .  .
You probably already heard; but for the record, your prediction came true.  Two Canadians have been arrested. 

Offline paralambano

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Re: Act III
« Reply #103 on: December 14, 2018, 01:07:23 pm »
Kerry -  ^

Ya. It didn't take long. Both for "national security" reasons. Canada Goose has delayed the opening of their first store there as a result, the knock-on effect. Meng has been given bail and is under surveillance (ankle). She owns a couple of houses in Vancouver.


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Offline Kerry

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Re: Act III
« Reply #104 on: December 14, 2018, 03:35:29 pm »
Kerry -  ^

Ya. It didn't take long. Both for "national security" reasons. Canada Goose has delayed the opening of their first store there as a result, the knock-on effect. Meng has been given bail and is under surveillance (ankle). She owns a couple of houses in Vancouver.


para .    .    .    .
Canada Goose stock took a hit.  I think various news reports connected that opening with this other stuff; but they say there was another reason.

https://www.cbc.ca/news/business/canada-goose-china-1.4946158

Shares in Canada Goose were slumping on Friday after the iconic parka maker delayed opening its first permanent store in mainland China, a move that comes amid a growing anti-Canadian backlash in that country.

The company's TSX-listed shares were off almost five per cent to $69.72 near midday on Friday, the seventh day out of the past eight that the stock has been in negative territory.

All in all, the company has shed almost a quarter of its value since Meng Wanzhou, the CFO of Chinese technology giant Huawei Inc., was detained in Vancouver at the request of U.S. authorities.

That sparked a backlash against Canadian companies by Chinese consumers, and the winter gear company with the red maple leaf on its logo has seemingly become a prime target.


I don't know if I'd go ahead with the plan to open if I was in charge, but the company is going ahead.

But on Chinese social media platform Weibo on Saturday, the company said a planned launch of its flagship Beijing location has been delayed because of construction.

"We originally planned to open the Beijing Sanlitun flagship store on December 15th," the company said on its Weibo account, according to a CBC translation. "Due to construction reasons, the opening will be postponed. Opening hours, etc. will be announced through official channels. Stay tuned for updates. Thank you for your support and understanding!"

The company's North American-based representatives confirmed the delay in a statement to CBC News on Friday.

"Canada Goose continues to move forward with our expansion plans in China. However, our Beijing store has been delayed slightly due to ongoing construction," the chain said. "We look forward to opening our newest store in the near future, but first and foremost we want to ensure that we provide the best experience for our fans and customers. We will continue to update the market as appropriate as plans progress."


Do we have the full story? I wonder.   

Offline paralambano

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Re: Act III
« Reply #105 on: December 14, 2018, 05:00:29 pm »
Kerry -  ^

So they say.

I suppose we can see where the Chinese ire lays and who will pay for the detention. The over a 100 billion dollar US trade deal is still on and no American detained. That could happen when she's extradited.


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Offline Kerry

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Re: Act III
« Reply #106 on: December 15, 2018, 09:12:37 pm »
Kerry -  ^

So they say.

I suppose we can see where the Chinese ire lays and who will pay for the detention. The over a 100 billion dollar US trade deal is still on and no American detained. That could happen when she's extradited.


para  .  .  .  .
I see the ire of the Chinese as an act intended to placate the Chinese people.  The Chinese are concerned with saving face.  What they don't seem to see is how this imperils future relations with Canada, creating more problems than the one problem they're trying to solve.   

Other things are happening, things they may prefer not to see discussed.  For example, they discovered they can't buy all the soybeans they want from other countries and have started buying from the US -- I haven't read, but I'm assuming the tariffs are still there, and that would mean the Chinese are paying a higher price for soybeans now.  The tariff on soybeans  was a bluff, meant to scare the US; but it appears that China needs to buy American soybeans more than American farmers need to sell to the Chinese. 

For me, the Chinese model is inherently unstable since it has a small group at the top making all the decisions.  I can't believe that a small group of people, not matter how elite and how intelligent, can micromanage everything.   China has already made a big mistake in my opinion by thinking it needed to move away from an agrarian society into some sort of industrial one.   How times have changed!   The agrarian society of Mao fell flat, eh?  So it's on to something else.  But they still haven't dropped that idea of an elite group controlling everyone and everything from the center.   To be sure, no nation ever got super rich by agriculture; but that's no reason to abandon agriculture since a nation that can't feed itself has a national security risk.   

They did abandon agriculture however.  They built cities believing they would be centers of industry  -- cities  that almost no one lives in today, cities of empty buildings.   That construction kept their numbers up for a while, since it certainly provided jobs; but was it worth while?    Meanwhile they seem to have lost the ability to feed themselves.  Do you know how relatively easy it is to win a war with a country that can't feed itself?   

If I ran Canada Goose, I would have called the Chinese bluff and announced I was  backing out of the deal.  I think the fact is that Chinese government needs foreign investment more than foreign investors need China as a market.   

You may be right about China arresting some Americans later; but if they do that,  they will be hurting themselves more than the US.   Of course, that wouldn't stop them.  They seem to think they can intimidate people from other countries as much as they intimate their own citizens.   

Offline KerimF

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Re: Act III
« Reply #107 on: December 16, 2018, 08:10:22 am »
By mere consecutive coincidences, anytime two countries are divided economically, the winner is the US System. Am I missing something :D

And, as you know, the USA/Saudi case let most countries withdraw their future investments in Saudi so that the biggest player will be the US System (and a few allies that are directly related to it) after the President Veto, if not earlier. So I congratulate the Congress for playing the role of protecting the American virtues while it is clear, based on the US democratic rules, its great meetings, concerning this case in the least, will have no real value on the ground :D

Offline paralambano

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Re: Act III
« Reply #108 on: December 16, 2018, 01:59:06 pm »
Kerry -

Quote
You may be right about China arresting some Americans later; but if they do that,  they will be hurting themselves more than the US.   Of course, that wouldn't stop them.  They seem to think they can intimidate people from other countries as much as they intimate their own citizens.   

You might have nailed it with this. Same with the Saudi leadership it appears.


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Offline Kerry

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Re: Act III
« Reply #109 on: December 17, 2018, 03:38:51 pm »
Kerry -

You might have nailed it with this. Same with the Saudi leadership it appears.


para .    .    .     .
The Saudis were a bit harsh condemning Canada's stand on human rights.  They seem to plead "internal affairs" quite a lot.  They also condemned the US Senate resolution that condemned some of their actions -- saying the American Senate shouldn't be interfering in their internal affairs.  Hmm?  I thought that journalist got killed in Turkey.  Is that an internal affair?  Hardly,  so why say such a ridiculous thing?  It seems pretty obvious to me they're not thinking very clearly.

I also don't get it why China is picking a quarrel with Canada.  If Canada is going by the laws,  what is China's complaint with Canada?  I thought this editorial  expressed that well.

https://www.msn.com/en-ca/news/newspolitics/us-and-china-feud-canada-pays-the-price-opinion/ar-BBR2gFe

Canada simply may have honored a routine extradition warrant, but it finds itself in an unenviable tug of war between the US and China amid a trade war between the two superpowers. Canada reportedly reached a "new level of frustration" with US President Donald Trump after he expressed a willingness to politicize Meng's case and use it as a bargaining chip to protect his country's economic and national security interests. Ottawa is also bearing the brunt of Meng's arrest after China detained two Canadians in apparent retaliation.

The consequences for Canada could be painful. The situation threatens to turn into yet another long-term foreign policy disaster for the relatively young and inexperienced government of Prime Minister Justin Trudeau. It is still bruising from Saudi Arabia's harsh retaliation after Canada criticized its human rights record in August.

To make matters worse, the imbroglio comes when the Trudeau government is trying to rev up trade and investment with China, partially to benefit from Beijing's deteriorating economic relationship with the US.


While I congratulate the Canadian government for not allowing itself to fall into corrupt practices, ignoring the law to show favoritism to "important" people, I think Trudeau is misguided trying to rev up the trade.  Trump complains a lot about the trade deficit the US has with China; Trudeau should be complaining more about Canada's deficit and putting the pressure on them for a more balancedd relationship.

https://www150.statcan.gc.ca/n1/pub/13-605-x/2018001/article/54962-eng.htm

Bilateral merchandise trade between Canada and China has grown significantly since 2001, and differences in the trade statistics of the two countries have widened in step with this growth. According to China’s statistics, bilateral total trade from 2001 to 2016 grew from $7.4 billion  to $45.7 billion, while the customs basis trade balance with Canada grew from a deficit of $680 million to a surplus of $9.0 billion. However, according to Canada’s statistics, bilateral total trade increased from $11.0 billion to $64.4 billion during this time period; Canada’s customs basis trade deficit with China grew from $5.5 billion to $32.8 billion.

Trudeau was right to emphasize the need for more competitive wages in Mexico in the NAFTA negotiations.  That got some results too.   A big  inequity in wages in two countries is always to warp the relationship. 

Frankly I'd like to see China's trade with Canada and the US fall off.  Canada can produce the stuff they import now from China, so can the US.   It would mean higher prices for those goods; but it would produce jobs.  It would also be good for the environment, saving on the fuel used now to ship stuff half the way round the world.   And then there are the security problems.  The Chinese are using a lot of the money they get from this unequal trade to build up their military.

Back to the editorial again:

Finally, resentment is growing toward China over everything from its aggressive actions in the South China Sea to mounting unease surrounding its aggressive Belt and Road Initiative. Canada should diversify its trade and investment portfolio with other Southeast Asian nations -- and in the process lessen dependence on China. And seeking sage counsel from elder statesmen such as Malaysia's Prime Minister Mahathir Mohamad, who has no qualms about standing up to China, could up Canada's tactical game.

Whatever the outcome of the current foreign policy dispute, the US has poked the Chinese dragon, and Canada stands to be burned badly in the process.


I'm rather optimistic.  It may look as if Canada's  going to get burned, but that's in the short term.   I think Canada would do better by diversifying and  focusing less on China and more on other Asian countries -- better financially and better for national (and global) security.   

It may also encourage China to take human rights more seriously.  Human rights is another of my grievances since if we are making China richer by trading with them while they're spending some of that money on concentration camps for the Uighurs, I think we need to start cutting back on the trade.   They're using that money on their military and on oppressing their own citizens.   Ditto for the Saudis.   

Why would China and Saudi Arabia behave the way they have with Canada?   I think they believe they can increase their own influence if they can create problems between the US and Canada.   Goodness, Trump has already done enough of that;  and it looks as if China and Saudi Arabia are piling on.   I don't see it working, not in the long term.